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CNN displays "65%." Traders assume it means a 65% chance. It doesn't. Here's what a prediction market price actually represents — and the five structural factors that make it something more complex, more useful, and more misleading than a simple probability.

Oil heading to $120. S&P crash probability at 60%. Democrats at 86% for the House. New Attorney General market live. Record platform volumes. Here's what prediction markets see this week — synthesized across venues for the second time.

Every major asset class is moving on the same variable. Only one instrument is pricing the specific probabilities behind it. Here's what the data says — across every platform, synthesized for the first time.

Prediction markets just crossed from niche to mainstream. But the experience is still built for the 1%, not the 36%.