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Article

We Indexed Every Prediction Market Into One Schema. Here's What We Found.

Field notes from building the deepest prediction market data infrastructure in the industry. What happens when you index nearly a billion rows of on-chain and off-chain data going back to September 2020 — and what the data reveals that no single platform can see.

Assymetrix Builder Brief — prediction market data API with 2.45 billion rows across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless showing data stack, API endpoints, code examples, and tier pricing

Article

A Soldier Used Classified Intelligence to Make $400K on Polymarket. The Data Saw It First.

Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve to profit from prediction markets. Harvard researchers flagged $143 million in suspected insider profits. The data signatures were visible all along. Here's what they look like — and why the industry's integrity infrastructure isn't ready.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — prediction market insider trading detection showing five-signal monitoring dashboard, Van Dyke case timeline, $143M in suspected insider profits, and the gap between data detection (Day 2) and DOJ indictment (Day 116)

Article

The Price Is Not the Probability: Why Everything You Think You Know About Reading Prediction Markets Is Wrong

CNN displays "65%." Traders assume it means a 65% chance. It doesn't. Here's what a prediction market price actually represents — and the five structural factors that make it something more complex, more useful, and more misleading than a simple probability.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — The Price Is Not the Probability: visualization of five structural filters between true probability and displayed prediction market price

Article

10 Prediction Market Numbers That Explain This Week

Oil heading to $120. S&P crash probability at 60%. Democrats at 86% for the House. New Attorney General market live. Record platform volumes. Here's what prediction markets see this week — synthesized across venues for the second time.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — 10 prediction market numbers synthesized across Polymarket, Kalshi, and emerging platforms for the week of April 7, 2026

All

Intelligence Brief

Builder Brief

Article

We Indexed Every Prediction Market Into One Schema. Here's What We Found.

Field notes from building the deepest prediction market data infrastructure in the industry. What happens when you index nearly a billion rows of on-chain and off-chain data going back to September 2020 — and what the data reveals that no single platform can see.

Assymetrix Builder Brief — prediction market data API with 2.45 billion rows across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless showing data stack, API endpoints, code examples, and tier pricing

Article

A Soldier Used Classified Intelligence to Make $400K on Polymarket. The Data Saw It First.

Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve to profit from prediction markets. Harvard researchers flagged $143 million in suspected insider profits. The data signatures were visible all along. Here's what they look like — and why the industry's integrity infrastructure isn't ready.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — prediction market insider trading detection showing five-signal monitoring dashboard, Van Dyke case timeline, $143M in suspected insider profits, and the gap between data detection (Day 2) and DOJ indictment (Day 116)

Article

The Price Is Not the Probability: Why Everything You Think You Know About Reading Prediction Markets Is Wrong

CNN displays "65%." Traders assume it means a 65% chance. It doesn't. Here's what a prediction market price actually represents — and the five structural factors that make it something more complex, more useful, and more misleading than a simple probability.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — The Price Is Not the Probability: visualization of five structural filters between true probability and displayed prediction market price

Article

10 Prediction Market Numbers That Explain This Week

Oil heading to $120. S&P crash probability at 60%. Democrats at 86% for the House. New Attorney General market live. Record platform volumes. Here's what prediction markets see this week — synthesized across venues for the second time.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — 10 prediction market numbers synthesized across Polymarket, Kalshi, and emerging platforms for the week of April 7, 2026

All

Intelligence Brief

Builder Brief

Article

We Indexed Every Prediction Market Into One Schema. Here's What We Found.

Field notes from building the deepest prediction market data infrastructure in the industry. What happens when you index nearly a billion rows of on-chain and off-chain data going back to September 2020 — and what the data reveals that no single platform can see.

Assymetrix Builder Brief — prediction market data API with 2.45 billion rows across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless showing data stack, API endpoints, code examples, and tier pricing

Article

A Soldier Used Classified Intelligence to Make $400K on Polymarket. The Data Saw It First.

Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified information about Operation Absolute Resolve to profit from prediction markets. Harvard researchers flagged $143 million in suspected insider profits. The data signatures were visible all along. Here's what they look like — and why the industry's integrity infrastructure isn't ready.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — prediction market insider trading detection showing five-signal monitoring dashboard, Van Dyke case timeline, $143M in suspected insider profits, and the gap between data detection (Day 2) and DOJ indictment (Day 116)

Article

The Price Is Not the Probability: Why Everything You Think You Know About Reading Prediction Markets Is Wrong

CNN displays "65%." Traders assume it means a 65% chance. It doesn't. Here's what a prediction market price actually represents — and the five structural factors that make it something more complex, more useful, and more misleading than a simple probability.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — The Price Is Not the Probability: visualization of five structural filters between true probability and displayed prediction market price

Article

10 Prediction Market Numbers That Explain This Week

Oil heading to $120. S&P crash probability at 60%. Democrats at 86% for the House. New Attorney General market live. Record platform volumes. Here's what prediction markets see this week — synthesized across venues for the second time.

Assymetrix Intelligence Brief — 10 prediction market numbers synthesized across Polymarket, Kalshi, and emerging platforms for the week of April 7, 2026